Despite the urgency of hard emission reduction targets and the policies to achieve them, it is probably going to be 2009 until we can make real international headway - largely because of the incumbent US administration. It will be apparent by mid-2008 that US policy post-Bush will be radically shifted on C02 mitigation. But with the Bali summit in December/07, we will start seeing the outline of the post-Kyoto framework. The dynamics for real progress in a post-Kyoto are surprisingly promising, imo. Harper and Baird, squirming and tap-dancing every step of the way, will toe the line through this process.
Granted, it's an embarrassment as a nation that Canada cannot lead on this file, but it is political reality. And the longer term solution has to be to keep atmospheric CO2 below 450 ppm... That imperative requires a solution that has "bite" for the next 50 years and more... I am sad to say it, but with the "mess" you refer to domestically, our best hope is to be dragged into this an obedient follower rather than being lead by Baird, Harper, et al, who did not even accept the science until it hit them like a 2x4.
In the meantime, keep pressing the dialogue with your elected representatives and colleagues... The post-Kyoto framework will likely still have considerable flexibility at the domestic implementation level - e.g. if we need to get cuts of, say, 30% by 2030, do we try to delay and do most of it later, do we get on with the inevitable task... The latter requires that we keep marshalling public support...
Kyoto is dead to us.
It looks like our moron prime minister is at it again. I don’t believe that in the history of this great nation, that democracy has ever been so badly abused and perverted. Stephen Harper’s recent political game, taunting and daring the opposition to call an election, is utterly disgusting. His declaration of reopening old debates such as terrorism legislation and anti-crime laws, are just two examples of his inability to take no for an answer as well as his disregard for parliamentary and democratic procedure.
But worst of all is his admission that even attempting to meet our requirements under the Kyoto protocol ain’t gonna happen. Then he claims “The world is moving on to address climate change and the environment, and Canada intends to help lead the effort at home and abroad.”
How?
Emission caps or not, intensity based targets won’t get the job done. What about the “Clean air act”? To quote from the throne speech, “Our Government will bring forward the elements from Canada’s Clean Air Act, which had all-party consensus, for parliamentary consideration.” The clean air act, just like the Bush clean air act, was under consideration by all parties because it was un-passable as it was originally written. The changes suggested by the opposition parties where ignored by Harper and the committee was then told that their input was not needed because they would simply amend already existing legislation to comply with their wishes. The “elements” to which he refers are nothing more than intensity based targets that will still allow overall CO2 levels to rise. All of this while we are being offered membership in the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, a group of heavy emitters that “believe” technology will allow them to keep on polluting and save the world at the same time. To anyone who has been following the development of our climate policy over the past few years, this would appear to be a huge step backwards. It also looks as though Harper, who has always been against Kyoto, may finally get to “kill the beast”. He will also get to join his elite bunch of buddies who enjoy the thought of make believe emission goals.
Our fate rests in the hands of the Liberal party now. If they do not reject the throne speech we will get everything Harper has promised, and more. If they do reject the speech we will be forced into another election, the results of which may put us right back were we are now.
What a mess!
Stop the warming!
cyb3r_ph4ntom
The Closet Environmentalist
http://polarbearadventures.blogspot.com/