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DeSmogBlog Tutor Examines the Trail of Denial

Three or four years ago, when the DeSmogBlog’s comments were still unmoderated (and too often unintelligent), we began to notice the consistent high quality of input from a frequent reader named John Mashey. His analysis was so sharp and his breadth of knowledge so impressive that we couldn’t resist tracking him down - to find out: who the heck is this guy?

Well, his Wikipedia page announces him as a “computer scientist, director and entrepreneur, ” a veteran of Bells Labs and Silicon Valley who has recently turned his prodigious energy and evident intelligence to the task of sorting out who’s saying what in the world of climate change denial and who’s paying them for their efforts.

Mashey has become a teacher, friend and contributor to the DSB in more ways than one. Aside from the remarkable research papers (1, 2)  that he has posted on our site in the last year, his was the greatest and most valued contribution to Climate Cover-up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming.

So, we’re thrilled he’s in “the neighbourhood,” speaking in our hometown of Vancouver tomorrow (Wednesday April 6, 7:30 p.m. in Theatre C300 at UBC Robson Square, 800 Robson Street) and  in Victoria (Thursday, April 7, 7:30 p.m. in Room B150 of the Bob Wright Centre at the University of Victoria). The trip, which included a lecture last night at the University of Northern BC in Prince George, was organized thanks to the good graces of Dr. Tom Pedersen, Director of the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions.

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University of Victoria Professor Andrew Weaver, the Canada Research Chair in Climate Modelling and Analysis, has filed suit for libel against freelance climate change denier Tim Ball.

The suit (attached below) arises from an article that Ball penned for the right-wingy Canada Free Press website, which has since apologized to Weaver for its numerous inaccuracies and stripped from its publicly available pages pretty much everything that Ball has ever written.

In the article, Ball, a former geography professor at the University of Winnipeg with an indifferent academic record and a lifetime peer-reviewed literature output of just four articles (none of them in atmospheric physics), assailed Weaver as uninformed about climate, unqualified to teach and compromised by his lavish funding, accusations for which he offered no proof whatever.

Weaver, a member of the Royal Society of Canada who has authored more than 190 papers, was also a lead author on three of the four reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climage Change (IPCC), and is lined up as a lead author on the fifth. He’s also won pretty much all the academic and teaching awards that are available to a Canadian professor who has not yet had his 50th birthday. Ball, famously slow to notice the obvious, apparently didn’t realize that he was overmatched.

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It’s only early January, and already we’re witnessing what could be the most devastating climate change story of the year.  A new study in Nature Geoscience this week shows that even if we go to zero emissions and completely halt our wholesale burning of fossil fuels, climate change will continue for the next 1,000 years. 

If only we could take solace in saying, “I told you so” to climate change deniers and the fossil fuel lobby fighting to confuse the public about climate change.  Such proclamations seem trite and trivial, however, when we’re faced with the burning reality that our dirty oil addiction is cooking the planet in an irreversible way. 

The study, conducted by University of Calgary and Environment Canada’s climate centre at the University of Victoria is the first full climate model simulation to make predictions 1,000 years into the future.  Dr. Shawn Marshall and his team explore the question: “What if we completely stopped using fossil fuels and put no more CO2 in the atmosphere?  How long would it then take to reverse current climate change trends and will things first become worse?”  Using simulations with the Canadian Earth System Model, the research team exploredzero-emissions scenarios if humans completely stop burning fossil fuels in 2010 and 2100.  

The article shows, devastatingly, that climate change will continue even if we stop our use of fossil fuels immediately.  We’ve had that much of an impact.  With this news, Canada’s head-in-sand approach to climate issues just won’t cut it. 

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Canadian denier-in-chief, the retired geographer Dr. Tim Ball, got seriously (though not physically) roughed up last week in a presentation to the University of Victoria Young Conservatives Club.

Apparently expecting a room full of docile Stephen Harper fans, Ball found himself instead in front of a group of burgeoning climate scientists - young people who were quick to challenge him when he said things that were pointedly untrue.

For example, after describing the effect of Milankovitch cycles on climate, Ball told the students (at 56:24) that these predictable changes in Earth’s orbit and tilt are not included in modern climate models.

“None of this is included in the computer models that are used to tell you that the climate is changing. It’s not even included. The models they’re doing here on campus. They’re not in there. Sorry.”

But at 1:01:25, a student responds: “We do include it, though. I am with the UVic climate lab and we do include it in our models. It’s a standard parameter.”

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Is it possible that amidst all the bogus claims, political controversy and foul cries about looming economic destruction, there’s actually a simple solution to the ravages of climate change?

A prominent Canadian engineer and scientist believes the solution – not just any solution but the only solution – rests within a tiny cell we ingest every day. And it can eliminate both carbon emissions and world conflict over oil supplies while saving the planet from global warming.

So pour yourself a glass of water and read on.

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The former U.S. vice president will descend on Victoria September 29, then cross the Georgia Strait for an engagement that evening in Vancouver. After his address, expected to focus on daily actions to combat climate change, the audience will be treated to high tea at the venerable Empress Hotel.