Kesten Green

 Credentials

Green began his master's studies in Management Science at Victoria University, and received a doctoral degree from Victoria Management School at Victoria University of Wellington. [1]

 Background

Kesten Green is a research associate in the department of Business and Economics at Monash University in Australia.

According to the Monash University website, Green's research interests are judgemental forecasting, forecasting for conflicts and forecasting methods.

He is the director and co-owner of the website forecastingprinciples.com. According to his Heartland Institute profile, "He decided to use his knowledge of forecasting to investigate whether predictions of dangerous manmade global warming were based on scientific forecasting methods." [2]

Stance on Climate Change

"Forecasts of dangerous global warming and of the extinction of polar bears are not
derived from scientific forecasting methods and lack credibility." [1]

Key Quotes

"As have other environmental alarms before it, the dangerous man-made global warming alarm will fade. Unfortunately, policies that make most people worse off have and will be implemented. We would be better off if we didn’t keep repeating the same old mistakes." [3]

Key Deeds

March 30, 2009

Green's signature is displayed alongside a full-page ad funded by the CATO institute that appeared in numerous newspapers including the Washington Post, the New York Times and the Chicago Tribune in 2009.

The advertisement responds to President Obama's declaration that "few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent than combating climate change. The science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear" by saying that "with all due respect Mr. President, that is not true." It goes on to describe how "there has been no net global warming for over a decade," and how global warming is "grossly overstated." [6]

March 8 - 10, 2009

Green was a speaker at the Heartland Institute's 2009 International Conference on Climate Change in New York City. [4]

2008

Green, along with Scott Armstrong and Willie Soon, made public an "unpublished working paper" arguing that the current forecast data on polar bear populations is inadequate for making a decision as to whether polar bears should be listed as a threatened species under the US Endangered Species Act.

The paper, "Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit," is not published in any peer-reviewed scientific journals, but has appeared on multiple websites, including Soon's Science and Public Policy website, Spiked Online and various blogs.

 Affiliations

• The Heartland Institute — "Heartland Expert." [2] , [5]

• Forecastingprinciples.com — Director and co-owner.

 Publications

According to Green, he has a research H-index of 11: "based on a Google Scholar search. H-index is number of papers that have at least that many citations, i.e. 11 papers cited at least 11 times in my case."

Upon closer examination of Green's articles on Climate change, most have appeared either in skeptical journals such as Energy and Environment (Edited by climate skeptic Sonja-Boehmer Christiansen), on his personal website, or were published by skeptical think tanks such as the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA).

His publication in the international journal of forecasting appears to be on the subject of public policy with reference to climate change.

Sample Publications:

• J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Willie Soon. "Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit," Marketing Papers (2008).

• Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Willie Soon. "Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making," International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 25, Issue 4 (October-December 2009), Pages 826-832.

• Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong. "Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts," Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Number 7 - 8 (December 2007).

• Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong. "Uncertainty, the Precautionary Principle, and Climate Change" (PDF), kestengreen.com, August 9, 2009.

• Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong. "Global Warming: Experts’ Opinions versus Scientific Forecasts" (PDF) NCPA Policy Report No. 308 (February 2008).

• Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong. "The global warming alarm: Forecasts from the structured analogies method" (PDF) Kestencgreen.com, March 31, 2011.

Energy and Environment has been described as the place climate change skeptics go to when they are rejected by the mainstream peer-reviewed science publications. The Journal has drawn sharp criticism, including one from Michael Mann regarding a questionable study co-authored by Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas.

 Resources

1. "Kesten C. Green: Curriculum Vitae" (PDF) Kestencgreen.com. Accessed December 15, 2011.

2. "Heartland Experts: Kesten Green," The Heartland Institute. Accessed December 15, 2011.

3. Kesten Green. "Warnings too vivid to be true," The Gazette, July 15, 2011.

4. "International Conference on Climate Change" (PDF) the Heartland Institute. Archived March 7, 2010.

5. "Personnel Details: Mr. Kesten Green," The Heartland Institute. Archived November 5, 2008.

6. "Climate Change Reality," The Cato Institute.

7. SourceWatch Profile.

8. ExxonSecrets Factsheet: Kesten Green.