National Science Foundation vindicates Michael Mann

Mon, 2011-08-22 13:05Richard Littlemore
Richard Littlemore's picture

National Science Foundation vindicates Michael Mann

Carbon steel “hockey stick” stronger than ever

The National Science Foundation (NSF) Office of the Inspector General, having conducted a thorough review and investigation into all allegations of impropriety or scientific misconduct against Penn State University Prof. Michael Mann, has dismissed all of those allegations for lack of evidence and closed the case (attached and/or here).

As reported by Joe Romm at Climate Progress, Mann has been the target of a host of allegations and attacks, many arising out of the iconic status of a graph (inset) that he created in a 1998 paper with Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes, and others sourced in the emails that hackers stole in 2009 from the the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

As the NSF now reports, none of Mann’s critics ever showed the courage or conviction of actually laying a formal complaint before Penn State, where Mann is director of the Earth System Science Center. But the allegations were so prominent in the blogosphere and in mainstream media that the university took it upon itself to conduct an investigation. The NSF then reviewed Penn State’s exculpatory findings, duplicating some parts of the investigation in greater detail.

The result? No shred of evidence exists to impugn Mann’s work.

As Romm points out, the central conclusion drawn from the Hockey Stick - that temperatures, stable for a thousand years, have spiked dramatically since humans began using fossil fuels - is also being confirmed with each new study. It appears that, unless you are willfully blind or directly in the employ of the fossil fuel industry, the evidence - of climate change, as well as of Mann’s scientific bona fides - is undeniable.

This is not likely to stop people like David Legates from continuing to misrepresent the contents of the East Anglia emails, nor would it be profitable to expect newpapers like the National Post or Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal to actually apologize to Mann and others or to make any other effort to correct the record. But for anyone who clicks past the imagined reality peddled by those papers, the conclusion is clear - and is now confirmed by one of the largest and most credible funders of scientific research in the world. The Hockey Stick is unbroken.

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Previous Comments

“The result? No shred of evidence exists to impugn Mann’s work.”

Didn’t expect anything different. Queue the deniers to start stamping their feet & pointing to debunked McIntyre & the ever predictable “It’s all over, no one listens to you guys anymore, it’s finished, the games up”.

“It’s all over, no one listens to you guys anymore, it’s finished, the games up”

If that sentiment is wrong we should expect politicians to be talking up the green agenda. Is Obama going to repeat his line about stopping the rise of the oceans? New carbon legislation of some sort? Ill be waiting with interest.

President Obama is not about to upset any apple carts between now and November 2012.

Exactly – Ogabe is too busy working on his golf swing.

“If that sentiment is wrong we should expect politicians to be talking up the green agenda. Is Obama going to repeat his line about stopping the rise of the oceans?”

Maybe other countries exist besides the USA……..just sayin.

There was a country in central Europe circa 1933 that burned books and said that science and intellectuals where a threat to the purity of the nation.

Is good to see Dr. Mann has been cleared of that kind of humiliation.

Oh…. moannnnnnnnn….

Not this Hokey Schtick crap again…
Aren’t your guy embarrassed?

You keep trying to flog this clear fraud, time and time again.

Give it up….

NOBODY believes this lie anymore… NOBODY!!!!

Well except a few cult hard core zealots…

No other bit of AGW BS has ever been more thuroghly debunked than this fradulent bit of propaganda.

you just must really want to be a joke.

Good Grief. Desperation is so pathetic.

“You keep trying to flog this clear fraud, time and time again.

Give it up….

NOBODY believes this lie anymore… NOBODY!!!!”

Right on queue.

“No other bit of AGW BS has ever been more thuroghly debunked than this fradulent bit of propaganda.

you just must really want to be a joke.”

It’s actually quite hilarious you guys coming here & telling us that it’s a fraud & nobody believes it anymore. Logically you wouldn’t be coming here in absolute desperation to convince people who disagree with you, to accept your delusional viewpoints.

Clearly if it was over & no one believes it anymore, then you wouldn’t be here trying to ply your trade.

Well at least you’ve got that going for you. Commenters showing up to say your wrong about stuff proves that somebody somewhere is still thinking about agw. A candle of hope in a dark world I suppose.

Ha ha: the name “Plant Food”

That choice of name says it all, regarding the level of understanding of the natural world by trolls who have no respect for evidence.

The basis of science is constant scrutiny and peer review.  A result MUST BE REPRODUCIBLE.  And the so-called “hockey stick” has been repeated over, and over, and over, and over , and over … using all kinds of corroborating evidence and a wide range of data. 

Get over it.  It’s happening, and if you fail to (a) try to reduce your impact, and (b) prepare for its impact, you will become an evolutionary DEAD END

Linky: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/04/06/climate-gate-michael-mann/

Excerpts:

When a Penn State board of inquiry unilaterally decided that Michael Mann had broken no rules in the climate-data scandal, global-warming alarmists breathed a sigh of relief, thinking the most damaging episode in their effort to save the planet was behind them. They were wrong.
……….
Despite ongoing criticism, the study formed the backbone of global warming theories – until leaked e-mails cast fresh doubt on Mann’s methodology and integrity, notably “the trick” he used to make his data so compelling.
………..
But the final say will be in the hands of a skeptical inspector general at the National Science Foundation, the primary funder of the research into global warming.
………..
Documents sent to Fox by insiders at the National Science Foundation’s Inspectors Office indicate that the office is also concerned about the Penn State inquiry and is looking to review the investigation.
…………
In other words, once the Penn State inquiry is over, the inspector general will likely step in. And if it does, it will be the first time that climate studies here will be scrutinized by an independent government organization with the skill and tools to investigate effectively.

This subject just won’t die.
No other scientific fraud has been so clearly discredited but they keep desperatly trying to save it.

Like the origional email states so clearly……

” We have to get rid of the Mideval Warm Period”…..

What a farce.

Yep, it certainly is farcical.

Farcical that conservatives trumpeted the Inspector General as the one to get to the bottom of everything and expose the obvious fraud. And what happens? Oh look - after interviewing Manns critics and asking sceptics to come forth with the actual evidence of fraud, they discover that there really isnt any evidence at all!

Could the reason that even sceptical inspectors general, as well as numerous Government AND non-Government inquiries on both sides of the Atlantic havent found any evidence of a conspiracy, actually be that there just ISNT any freaking evidence?

What original email? Please provide a link to it. Otherwise, folks here should simply assume that you are making things up.

Ok … for the twentieth time….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1rj00BoItw

It was presented in Dr David Deming’s statement to the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works on December 6, 2006.

And stop pretending that you did not know that.
Everyone that has done ANY research on this topic knows all about it.

“Ok … for the twentieth time….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1rj00BoItw

It was presented in Dr David Deming’s statement to the U.S. Senate”

Ahhh yes, who was the source again? Who was the “major researcher”?. Makes conviction easy when you don’t have a name doesn’t it?

What part of “link to original email” don’t you understand?

There’s nothing in that silly youtube video that provides any such information – just third-hand gossip from a delusional denier..

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/07/17/we-have-to-get-rid-of-the-medieval-warm-period

http://google.com/search?q=%22+We+have+to+get+rid+of+the+Medieval+Warm+Period%22

http://uleak.it/?6tc

http://uleak.it/?gb http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy

READ THE SCIENCE!!

Does this mean that they are finally going to honor the (court ordered) state’s FOI request and release Mann’s emails??

Shocking, just shocking!

Mann gets “exhonerated” by an agency which is part of an administration that uses Mann’s pseudo-research as the basis for their ruinous policies.

How completely unexpected!

very good posting! Thanks for sharing

I think I can sum up every one of the deniers responses in 7 words: “The conspiracy runs deeper than I thought”.

The word “conspiracy” implies that this is somehow occurring secretly, which isn’t the case. This latest phony “exoneration” took place quite openly. Therefore, “collusion” might be a more fitting word. You can’t deny there is a mutual benefit to both parties in “exonerating” Mann.

But I wonder what made them think Mann needed to be “exonerated” of anything in the first place? The fact that a political organization like the National Science Foundation suddenly felt compelled to put on this little dog and pony show is revealing in itself.

To summarize your comment in 7 words: “The conspiracy runs deeper than I thought”.

To summarize your comment in 11 words: “I know you are, but what am I? Nyah-nyah-nyah!”

The conspiracy is all encompassing. All the investigations were tainted…by the conspiracy. All of them. They all collude…somehow. The details of how they get away with it are very mysterious so, sadly, no details are forthcoming. The actual nuts and bolts of the operation are completely unknown. Yet the fact that Climategate fizzled and denialist critics never even bothered to lay formal charges just proves that there really is a conspiracy.
NASA has been in on the conspiracy for over forty years now.
(They brag about it on their website.)
Every single scientific community on the planet is all deep in conspiracy with the “hoax of global warming”.
It’s the first truly successful global conspiracy ever in human history.
Only the deniers (with the generous support of the Koch brothers) see the troooth!

The anti-intellectual crowd will not be swayed by any factual argument; it is a waste of time to try. These folks are the modern flat-earth society.

lol.. Flat Earthers Huh?

Wonder what your comment will be in a few days.

Since … well…. The game is up…

The CERN Cloud Experiment results were published today and Guess what the result was?

Here is a hint…

Its the SUN STUPID !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now confirmed.

Hey Plant Food you had better take ant-acid tablets as you keep regurgitating this mess:

‘The CERN Cloud Experiment results were published today and Guess what the result was?

Here is a hint…

Its the SUN STUPID !!!!!!!!!!!!!’

Explanations here: http://www.desmogblog.com/giant-xstrata-coal-mine-challenged-over-climate-change-impacts#comment-722245

Not really far off of general public sentiment - of course very few use those words but words are just words. Actions are what count and so deep down that’s where people are as they shop for meat in their suv that they park in the burbs collecting air miles for that next trip to Hawaii.

Heh let’s burn some fossils - those Dumb scientists are so dumb and fat as Al Gore. Pass the spare ribs.

You’re not a meat eater ae you Ced? Look it up. Meat production is a planet killing global warming nightmare. Gotta go vegan if you’re halfway serious about the science.

‘You’re not a meat eater ae you Ced? Look it up. Meat production is a planet killing global warming nightmare. Gotta go vegan if you’re halfway serious about the science.’

As there is little body in them.

Meat industry produces up to a quarter of anthropogenic green house gasses.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-greenhouse-hamburger

So you see Al Gores gut matters after all. Go Vegan or say goodbye to the climate we know and love. (that said I’m eating ice cream while I type this)

“The result? No shred of evidence exists to impugn Mann’s work.”

Oh, really?

“claims for the earlier period covered by the study, from AD 900 to 1600, are less certain. This earlier period is particularly important because global-warming sceptics claim that the current warming trend is a rebound from a ‘little ice age’ around 1600. Overall, the committee thought the temperature reconstructions from that era had only a two-to-one chance of being right.”

“”The IPCC used it as a visual prominently in the report,” says Kurt Cuffey, a panel member and geographer at the University of California, Berkeley. “I think that sent a very misleading message about how resolved this part of the scientific research was.”

And my own favorite:

“”high level of confidence” that the second half of the twentieth century was warmer than any other period in the past four centuries”
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v441/n7097/full/4411032a.html

The last four centuries, not the last millennium.

That’s not the same as “no shred of evidence exists to impugn Mann’s work”. That is not “Carbon steel hockey stick stronger than ever”. This is a really shoddy piece of reporting.

I wonder what it will _take_ for non-scientists to report science accurately? Electroshock therapy?

It’s worth noting that even Mann’s own work has superseded this stuff. Vide:

http://www.mendeley.com/research/global-surface-temperatures-over-the-past-two-millennia/#

It’s worth paying careful attention to Figure 2, in which you can see the central point of the critics confirmed; that all instrumental measurements exceed the proxy measurements for the same period.

There’s a lot more stuff in the following:

http://www.mendeley.com/research/global-surface-temperatures-over-the-past-two-millennia/

It repeats the point that things go to hell in a handbag when you graft instrumental measurements onto proxy measurements. That last paper is way better than anything produced in that original one; it has a number of proxy-only studies that are worth consulting - most show warming, some don’t, but it concedes the point that you can’t just graft one dataset onto another without problems. We could all have been spared much misery if, a) Mann had made all his data available at the start, b) reporters and politicos could learn something about how science actually works.

How many read this “vindication” to mean that Mann is right after all, I wonder?

All the NSF is concluding, and all that they were ever really willing to consider, is if Mann falsified raw data. Well, that was never debated was it? It was how Mann analyzed data and conducted statistical evalations to arrive at the graph thathas been questioned. And NSF states in plain and clear language that statistical analysis methods are debateable and notpat of the scope of their investigation.

The main question is, and should be, is the data right or not. That is still debatable and not addressed by NSF.

moongophers,

Knock it off. Scientific dishonesty is a very serious charge. Do not make it lightly.

Plant fool, always the fool & lacking even a grain of sense.

What do you know, we are actually agreeing on something.

Wonders never cease Hugo ;)

Way to win the conversation against the deniers.

Way to come up with an original troll name.

[x]

There is no better way to describe self-appointed climate auditor Steve McIntyre than ‘determined’. Highly determined even.

And you would have to be pretty obstinate to try and poke holes in peer-reviewed climate science given that McIntyre claims he does not receive a salary signed by Big Oil. As author of the sceptic blog Climate Audit, all of McIntyre’s work is funded on his own dime.

Of course, his hotel accommodation while in London this August, where our interview was conducted,...

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