Sierra Club Drowns in Own Climate Catastrope

Dear Friends, There has been quite a bit of discussion over the past few days regarding the Sierra Club of BC's release showing what a 6 meter and a 25 meter sea level rise would do to Victoria, and some unkind words have been cast. The Sierra Club's work was never "bar room biology"; there was a detailed referenced scientific background paper that accompanied the original story.

The fact that the media chose not to report this is not the Sierra Club's fault. There has also been misunderstanding about the context of James Hansen's remarks (Independent, Feb 17 2006 http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0217-22.htm), where he says (quite accurately) "How far can it go? The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today - which is what we expect later this century - sea levels were 25m higher. So that is what we can look forward to if we don't act soon" Some people have read this to mean we could have a 25 meter sea level rise this century, which is not at all what he says, or means. "How fast can this go? Right now, I think our best measure is what happened in the past. We know that, for instance, 14,000 years ago sea levels rose by 20m in 400 years - that is five meters in a century.

This was towards the end of the last ice age, so there was more ice around. But, on the other hand, temperatures were not warming as fast as today." "How long have we got? We have to stabilize emissions of carbon dioxide within a decade, or temperatures will warm by more than one degree. That will be warmer than it has been for half a million years, and many things could become unstoppable. If we are to stop that, we cannot wait for new technologies like capturing emissions from burning coal. We have to act with what we have. T

his decade, that means focusing on energy efficiency and renewable sources of energy that do not burn carbon. We don't have much time left." Here is a clarifying Op-Ed by Kathryn Molloy in today's Victoria Times Colonist, which states a very accurate, clear, and balanced position. It is totally valid for us to be concerned that our actions today could trigger a future meltdown of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice caps, without knowing how long (or short) a time this could take. I want to congratulate the Sierra Club on their work, and hope that public misunderstandings of the different sea-level rise predictions do not distract us from the vitally important work we have in front of us. Sincerely. Guy Dauncey Victoria, BC Sierra Club depicts a possible future Controversial maps intended to show the results of unchecked global warming Kathryn Molloy Special to Times Colonist Wednesday, December 13, 2006 CREDIT: Debra Brash, Times Colonist Kathryn Molloy explains a possible watery future for Victoria during a media conference last week.

Last week the Sierra Club B.C. published maps of the capital region showing new coastlines if sea levels were to rise six and 25 metres. Some media reports attributed erroneous statements to the Sierra Club, even going so far as to say that we "predicted" a 25-metre sea level rise within decades. That is simply not the case. Most global warming science is based on climate models that attempt to predict how the climate will respond to varying levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climatologists the world over concur that humanity's propensity to emit enormous amounts of greenhouse gases is causing our planet to get warmer. With the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere and our current rate of emissions, we will be hard pressed to keep temperatures from rising a global average of 2C (compared to pre-industrial times) before the end of this century. If we don't keep the increase below 2C, climatologists believe we could trigger "runaway" warming where various feedback loops drive us into a 3 to 5C warming scenario some time in the next century. Determining the impacts of these temperature increases is devilishly complex.

However, one way of trying to understand the implications for our planet is to ask the question: What did the world look like the last time it was at this point? Well, the last time Earth became 2C warmer was 130,000 years ago, and sea levels were roughly six metres higher. Estimates by scientists of how quickly this could occur range from a century to thousands of years. The last time the Earth was 3 to 5C warmer, which is what we're heading for if we continue with "business as usual" levels of greenhouse gas emissions, was three million years ago and sea levels were approximately 25 metres higher. No one alive will see a 25-metre sea level rise -- but whether or not the Earth warms enough to experience one will be determined, in the next 20 years, by the actions of everyone alive. We have to prevent greenhouse gases going much beyond present levels, and certainly not beyond doubling. This is a massive undertaking and the Sierra Club believes a demonstration of the consequences of failure is a valid motivator to get on with the job. We risk creating environments with which our species has no experience.

As NASA climate scientist James Hansen says, beyond a 2C increase it would be "practically a different planet." But the planet has been there before, and the Sierra Club B.C. has mapped one aspect of that state, sea level, as an overlay on our current habitat -- our cities (see www.sierraclub.ca/bc; a backgrounder on the science is available there as well). The Sierra Club map is intended as a visual aid to show us what that "different planet" would look like. It's an attempt to depict the threat in a way to which our brains can respond.

The desired response is not a building boom atop mountains, but widespread resolve to make the significant changes in behaviour necessary to avert the worst impacts of global warming, not to mention the visionary laws and policies we need from our governments. The same scientists who tell us we're on this path also tell us we have time to make those changes. But, that means the next 10 to 20 years will have to be very different than today. Our politicians must set a trajectory for our economies that drives low-carbon innovation and lifestyles.

We need mandated greenhouse gas reduction targets and the support and incentives to meet them. Recent polls show British Columbians and Canadians increasingly understand the threat and are ready to make the changes necessary. In its soon-to-be-released energy plan, the B.C. government has the opportunity to demonstrate that it, too, is ready to meet the moral and technical challenges posed by global warming. The people of B.C. demand nothing less. Kathryn Molloy is executive director of the environmental lobby group Sierra Club B.C. © Times Colonist (Victoria) 2006