By Andrew King, climate extremes research fellow at the University of Melbourne, and Ed Hawkins, associate professor of climate science at the University of Reading.
We’re not even halfway through the year but already you may have heard talk of 2016 being the hottest on record. But how can scientists be so sure we’re going to beat the previous record, set just last year?
Even before the end of 2015, the UK Met Office was forecasting with 95% confidence that 2016 would beat the record. Since then, that confidence has grown still further, as record after record has tumbled. April 2016broke the record for the hottest April after we had experienced the hottest February and March on record already this year.