Climate change warrior wields political clout

Two hot-off-the-press polls suggest fighting climate change has attained coast-to-coast approval. A survey by the prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows Americans rank climate change as the nation’s most pressing environmental problem – a dramatic increase from its sixth-place ranking just three years ago.

The timing of the MIT poll dovetailed with a Field Poll survey in California giving Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger a 16-point lead over his Democratic opponent – the widest margin in two decades for a gubernatorial front runner just days before an election. The previous poll in late September showed Schwarzenegger with a 10-point lead in late September over former real-estate developer and now State Treasurer Phil Angelides.

Last February, they were tied at 39 per cent. Schwarzenegger has steadily regained public support by working closely with Democrats on a variety of issues, and distanced himself from the unpopular Bush Administration by backing a pioneering state measure aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Failing an extraordinary shift in momentum, Angelides stands to suffer defeat Tuesday in an election ripe for Democratic victories elsewhere – and in a state known for its blue pedigree.

The poll said Schwarzenegger’s comeback is so strong he’s even running neck-and-neck with Angelides in the San Francisco Bay area, one of the most politically liberal regions in the US. In the MIT survey, nearly three-quarters of respondents said government should do more to deal with global warming.

“While terrorism and the war in Iraq are the main issues of national concern, there's been a remarkable increase in the American public's recognition of global warming and their willingness to do something about it,” said political science Professor Stephen Ansolabehere.

Imagine where Arnold's numbers would be if he dropped his fleet of hummers.


Well it might well be a problem in America, but in Australia the evidence proves that Australia is just not warming up at all:

Thanks, but it’s “Global” warming for a reason…. not “Australia” warming or “America” warming. Check out this graph and tell me there is nothing for Australia to worry about:

Ohh, I never said anything about global warming, but rather that Australia shows no signs of warming up at all…that’s all. But it is interesting that despite the age

reporting  that

AUSTRALIA’S emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest per capita in the Western world — apart from tiny Luxembourg — and have grown by 1.5 tonnes a head since 1990

These increased levels of greenhouse gases in Australia have had no influence whatsoever on Australias temperatures.

Australia itself may not be warming, but it sure as heck is drying out

This is one of the possible effects of anthropogenic global warming mentioned by the IPCC and others.  Increasing El Nino conditions, resulting in greater drought Down Under.

With regards to rainfall the ABM they say that Australia has experienced marked rainfall trends over the last 50 years with declines over southern and eastern Australia and increases across the northwest. and then continue to say in the next paragraph: The dry conditions in southern and eastern Australia in 2006 have continued the long-term rainfall deficiencies in many regions, some of which extend back more than five years. Huh? Long term is 5 years? They conclude that Aspects of this multi-year drought are highly unusual and unprecedented in many areas. Understanding the role that climate change has played in these anomalies is an area of active research. Nice conclusion. I guess that global warming only applies to the south east of Australia. So lets check the stats, as given directly from the ABM website: Sure last year was very light on the rainfall, however it wasn’t the lowest. This occurred in 1982. And whilst the last 5 years of rainfall in south eastern Australia have been low, it is not the lowest in the last 100 years. The period of 1940 to 1944 produced 75mm less rainfall in south eastern Australia than 2002 to 2006. But of course we are lead to believe that this is the worst drought in 1000 years, isn’t that right? So the ABM suggest that this long term trend of 5 years is highly unusual and unprecedented. A simple analysis of the figures above show that this is far from the truth. as shown here

Kevin, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has a rather different view than Jonathan’s.  Right up front on its <a href=””>climate change page</a> the BoM has this to say:

“Australia and the globe are experiencing rapid climate change. Since the middle of the 20th century, Australian temperatures have, on average, risen by about 1°C with an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and a decrease in the numbers of frosts and cold days.”

Perhaps unsurprisingly, it appears from a quick review of Jonathan’s blog that he’s a fairly standard-issue denialist.

I am not a denialist, but rather a scientist who analyses climate data. Please if you are going to refute what I say because it goes against what you believe, then please do so by refuting my statistical analysis, and not by simply labeling me.

It kind of says a lot about you that you can dish research off like the toss of a hat just because you have pre conceived ideas of the truth.

The bare link since I couldn’t get the code to work: