David Evans

David Evans


  • Ph.D. Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California. [1]
  • M.S. Electrical Engineering, Stanford University. [1]
  • M.S. Statistics, Stanford University. [1]
  • M.A. Applied Mathematics, University Of Sydney. [1]
  • B.E. Electrical Engineering, University Of Sydney, Sydney Australia, University Medal (1983). [1]
  • B.Sc. Applied Mathematics and Physics, University Of Sydney. [1]


David M. W. Evans is an editor for the Australian edition of GoldNerds, a company that sells information about gold companies to investors. He also does private mathematics research. Evans works alongside his wife Joanne Nova at Science Speak, a group that describes itself as “a small private scientific modeling and mathematical research company” that also speaks “about some science and economic issues.” [1], [2]

David Evans gained media attention after a 2008 article he wrote in The Australian titled ”No smoking hot spot.” The article claims that climate change is not caused by C02 emissions because there is no evidence of “a hot spot about 10km up in the atmosphere over the tropics.” [3] 

His claim has been thoroughly debunked by Tim Lambert, a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales. [4]

From 1999 to 2005, Evans worked for the Australian Greenhouse Office designing a carbon accounting system that is used by the Australian Government to calculate its land-use carbon accounts for the Kyoto Protocol. [1]

While Evans said ”[He] know[s] a heck of a lot about modeling and computers,” in a 2007 presentation to the Lavoisier Group, he also states clearly that he is “not a climate modeler.” [5]

Rocket Scientist?

David Evans claims to be a “Rocket Scientist,” and conservative news sources have also described him as a ”Top Rocket Scientist.” While Evans does have a Ph.D. in electrical engineering, there is no evidence that he was ever employed as a rocket scientist. [3], [6]

When DeSmogBlog contacted Evans regarding his claim, Evans replied that “In US academic and industry parlance, 'rocket scientist' means anyone who has completed a PhD in one of the hard sciences at one of the top US institutions.” Evans also claims to be “building a word processor for Windows.” DeSmogBlog contacted Microsoft and they have confirmed that he does not work for them. [7]

Sciencespeak also responded in similar parlance, saying that “'Rocket scientist' is or was a widely used colloquial term in the US to mean anyone capable of doing rocket science, and applies to most hard technical PhDs at the handful of top institutions (and David certainly qualified).” Sciencespeak additionally describes Desmog as an “attack site” with the intent of manufacturing “smears on scientists.” [8]

Stance on Climate Change


David Evans proposes a “Notch-Delay Solar Theory” which he summarizes as follows:

“Global temperatures will come off the current plateau into a sustained and significant cooling, beginning 2017 or maybe as late as 2021. The cooling will be about 0.3 °C in the 2020s, taking the planet back to the global temperature that prevailed in the 1980s. This was signaled (though not caused) by a fall in underlying solar radiation starting in 2004, one of the three largest falls since 1610 when records started. There is a delay of one sunspot cycle, currently 13 years (2004+13 = 2017).” [9]

October, 2015

The model architecture was wrong. Carbon dioxide causes only minor warming. The climate is largely driven by factors outside our control.” [10]

Yes, CO2 has an effect, but it’s about a fifth or tenth of what the IPCC says it is. CO2 is not driving the climate; it caused less than 20 per cent of the global warming in the last few decades.” [10]

March, 2011

“I understand the evidence, I was once an alarmist, but now am a skeptic. […] The idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guess that was proved false by empirical evidence during the 1990s. […] Yes carbon dioxide is a cause of global warming, but it’s so minor it’s not worth doing much about.” [11]

November, 2009

  1. “There is almost no relationship between human emissions and global temperature, so global warming is not mainly due to human emissions of carbon dioxide.
  2. Something other than human emissions caused the global warming prior to 1850.
  3. The steadiness of the underlying temperature trend since 1700 suggests that whatever caused the warming prior to 1850 is still causing warming, and that the effect of human emissions of carbon dioxide is relatively insignificant.” [12]

Key Quotes

January, 2016

“There is no empirical evidence that rising levels of carbon dioxide will raise the temperature of the Earth’s surface as fast as the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts. The predictions are entirely based on calculations with models.” [13]

April, 2011

“The climate models all predict that as the planet warms, a hot spot of moist air will develop over the tropics about 10 kilometres up, as the layer of moist air expands upwards into the cool dry air above. During the warming of the late 1970s, ’80s and ’90s, the weather balloons found no hot spot. None at all. Not even a small one. This evidence proves that the climate models are fundamentally flawed, that they greatly overestimate the temperature increases due to carbon dioxide.” [14]

October, 2009

“The theory that we caused the global warming with our emissions of carbon dioxide is based on two assumptions (guesses), made in the early 1980s when there was insufficient data. One assumption has since been disproved, and the second is looking dubious.” [15]

How would anyone really know if global warming is occurring? People simply don't notice changes as small as 0.5°C, the amount of global warming over the last century. Any perceived cooling can be explained away by alarmists as just “regional variation”. It's beautiful: this scam could go for decades.” [15]

July, 2008

“If there is no hot spot then an increased greenhouse effect is not the cause of global warming. So we know for sure that carbon emissions are not a significant cause of the global warming. […]” [16]

“I am the rocket scientist who wrote the carbon accounting model (FullCAM) that measures Australia's compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, in the land use change and forestry sector.” [3]

Key Deeds

February 23, 2017

David Evans was a signatory of a petition (PDF) organized by Richard Lindzen of the Cato Institute urging President Donald Trump to pull the United States out of the United Nations international convention on climate change (UNFCCC). [31]

In just a few weeks, more than 300 eminent scientists and other qualified individuals from around the world have signed the petition below,” Lindzen wrote in the letter.  [31]

DeSmog investigated the list, and found that only a small handful of the signatories could be considered “even remotely ‘qualified’ or ‘eminent’ — but not in the field of climate science.” The list included individuals “interested in climate,” and one signatory who only identified as an “emailer who wished to sign the petition” while some signers provided no affiliation or address whatsoever. [32]

August, 2016

David Evans is listed as a “Founding Member” of group named Climate Exit (Clexit) led by climate change denier Christopher Monckton. According to Clexit's founding statement (PDF), “The world must abandon this suicidal Global Warming crusade. Man does not and cannot control the climate.” [17], [18]

Desmog reports on how the group grew in the wake of the UK's decision to leave the EU. A key member of Clexit's “60 well-informed science, business and economic leaders” is Hugh Morgan, a former board member of the Reserve Bank of Australia and former CEO of Western Mining Corporation with close ties to Australia's Liberal party. [19], [20]

According to Clexit's founding statement

If the Paris climate accord is ratified, or enforced locally by compliant governments, it will strangle the leading economies of the world with pointless carbon taxes and costly climate and energy policies, all with no sound basis in evidence or science […]”  [18]

October, 2015

Under the headline “Perth electrical engineer’s discovery will change climate change debate,” News Corp Australia columnist Miranda Devine wrote about the latest theory by David Evans:  [10]

“If Dr Evans is correct, then he has proven the theory on carbon dioxide wrong and blown a hole in climate alarmism,” she writes. “He will have explained why the doomsday predictions of climate scientists aren’t reflected in the actual temperatures.” [10]

Graham Readfearn comments on the piece in an article in The Guardian, noting that Evans's theory had arose from a series of over 11 blog posts he had on his wife's blog (JoNova) where Evans claims to have found fundamental problems with climate models. [21]

Prof Matt England, of the University of New South Wales climate change research centre, had this to say: 

David Evans has a superb track record of dodgy claims and bizarre climate change theories. He has zero credibility in the field and it’s staggering that any credible journalist could fall for this rubbish. [21]

Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth System Science at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told Readfearn:

“I’ve been working in climate science for 25 years now, and every few months someone (often they are engineers) comes up with a supposed bombshell refutation of human-caused global warming - none of this has ever stood up to scientific scrutiny. Dr Evans rolls out a number of well-worn false assertions often heard from those outside science who try to discredit climate science. Global warming is not pausing: it’s a measured fact that the globally hottest years on record are 2014, 2010 and 2005. 2015 is already so much warmer than 2014 that it is almost certain to be yet another record year. Models reproduce (and have in fact predicted) the warming of the past forty years well. I am surprised that some journalists are still gullible enough to present such a non-story, based merely on wild claims in a blog.” [21]

September 18, 2013

David Evans is listed as a Contributing Author to “Climate Change Reconsidered II,” a publication of the Heartland Institute's Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). It was sponsored by the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, The Science and Environmental Policy Project, and the Heartland Institute. [22]

The report's introduction outlines how it plans to specifically discredit the Independent Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): [23]

“Like its predecessor reports, this volume provides the scientific balance that is missing from the overly alarmist reports of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are highly selective in their review of climate science and controversial with regard to their projections of future climate change. Although the IPCC claims to be unbiased and to have based its assessment on the best available science, we have found this to not be the case. In many instances conclusions have been seriously exaggerated, relevant facts have been distorted, and key scientific studies have been ignored.” [23]

October 1, 2010

David Evans was a speaker at the Heartland Institute's Fifth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC5) in Sydney, Australia. The event was sponsored by Heartland, Americans for Tax Reform, the Property Rights Alliance, and the Institute of Public Affairs. [24]

Evans' speech was titled ”Is the Western Climate Establishment Corrupt?” Video below:

March 8-10, 2009

Evans made a presentation titled “Carbon Dioxide Not Responsible for 20th Century Warming” at the Heartland Institute's 2009 International Conference on Climate Change. See video coverage below: [25]



According to his own resume, Evans has not published any peer-reviewed research papers on the subject of climate change. Evans published one paper in 1987, but it was unrelated to climate change. [7]


  1. “David Evans: Mathematician and Engineer” (PDF), Sciencespeak.com. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog.

  2. About,” Science Speak. Archived September 14, 2016. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/x9OvE

  3. David Evans. “No smoking hot spot,” The Australian, July 18, 2008. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/T5OLa

  4. Tim Lambert. “The Australian's War on Science XV,” Deltoid, July 18, 2008. Archived March 8, 2009. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/yv6f1

  5. David Evans. “My Life With the AGO and Other Reflections” (PDF), July 4, 2007. Retrieved from pensee-unique.fr. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog.

  6. Paul Joseph Watson. “TOP ROCKET SCIENTIST: NO EVIDENCE CO2 CAUSES GLOBAL WARMING,” InfoWars, July 22, 2008. Archived September 14, 2016. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/N3hl4

  7. Kevin Grandia. “Who is 'Rocket Scientist' David Evans?Desmog, July 22, 2008.

  8. Attacks and Smears on Us,” Sciencespeak.com. Archived September 14, 2016. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/nQgg6

  9. The Notch-Delay Solar Theory,” Science Speak. Archived September 14, 2016. Archive.is URL: https://archive.is/2S2ye

  10. Miranda Devine. “Miranda Devine: Perth electrical engineer’s discovery will change climate change debate,” Perth Now, October 3, 2015. Archived September 14, 2016. Archive.is URL: https://archive.is/GyhZx

  11. “Summary Speech on Global Warming, 2011: Dr David Evans” (PDF), sciencespeak.com, March 23, 2011. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog.

  12. “A Simple Proof that Global Warming Is Not Man-Made” (PDF), Science Speak, November 29, 2009. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog.

  13. David Evans. “Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics — A Summary” (PDF), Science Speak. Updated January 27, 2016.

  14. David Evans. “Climate models go cold,” Financial Post, April 8, 2011. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/WrMzM

  15. “Manufacturing Money and Global Warming” (PDF), Science Speak, October 25, 2009. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog.

  16. Top Rocket Scientist: No Evidence CO2 Causes Global Warming,” Prison Planet, July 22, 2008. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/N3hl4

  17. The Clexit Committee comprises” (PDF), Clexit.net. Archived.pdf on file at Desmog.

  18. “After Brexit, Clexit” (PDF), Clexit.net. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog.

  19. Graham Readfearn. “After Brexit, Climate Science Denialists Form New Group to Call for a Clexit,” Desmog, August 3, 2016.

  20. Hugh Morgan AO,” Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Archived February 22, 2002. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/1ObOB

  21. Graham Readfearn. “As Paris talks approach, not even Donald Trump's fringe can hide desperation of climate science denialists,” The Guardian, October 16, 2015. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/5yoM5

  22. Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science,” Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change. Archived September 14, 2016. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog.

  23. “Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science” (PDF), Nongovernmental International Panel on  Climate Change. PDF Archived at Desmog.

  24. ICCC-5,” International Conferences on Climate Change. Archived September 14, 2016. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/GMM1Z

  25. Heartland Institute/International Conference on Climate Change (2009),” SourceWatch.

  26. About Us,” Australian Climate Science Coalition. Archived February 13, 2014. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/YenwO

  27. Special report from UN climate conference in Bali,” Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, December 27, 2007. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/xHdsf

  28. Articles, Conference Papers and Submissions,” The Lavoisier Group. Archived September 14, 2016. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/evwi1

  29. David M.W. Evans,” Mises Institute. Archived September 14, 2016. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/B9cnX

  30. Who We Are,” Galileo Movement. Archived September 24, 2016. Archive. is URLhttps://archive.is/iyn7s

  31. PETITION” (PDF), February 23, 2017. Richard Lindzen. PDF Archived at DeSmog.

  32. Graham Readfearn. “Climate Science Denier Richard Lindzen's List of 300 “Scientists” Sent to Trump Is the Usual Parade of Non-Experts,” DeSmog, February 27, 2017.

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