Kesten Green

kesten-green

Kesten Green

Credentials

Green began his master's studies in Management Science at Victoria University, and received a doctoral degree from Victoria Management School at Victoria University of Wellington. [1]

Background

Kesten Green is a research associate in the department of Business and Economics at Monash University in Australia.

According to the Monash University website, Green's research interests are judgmental forecasting, forecasting for conflicts, and forecasting methods.

He is the director and co-owner of the website forecastingprinciples.com. According to his Heartland Institute profile, “He decided to use his knowledge of forecasting to investigate whether predictions of dangerous manmade global warming were based on scientific forecasting methods.” [2]

Stance on Climate Change

“Forecasts of dangerous global warming and of the extinction of polar bears are not
derived from scientific forecasting methods and lack credibility.” [1]

Key Quotes

“As have other environmental alarms before it, the dangerous man-made global warming alarm will fade. Unfortunately, policies that make most people worse off have and will be implemented. We would be better off if we didn’t keep repeating the same old mistakes.” [3]

Key Deeds

February 4, 2018

In January 2018, more than 200 scientists endorsed an open letter calling on the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH) to remove climate change denier Rebekah Mercer from its board and to “end ties to anti-science propagandists and funders of climate science misinformation.” The New York Times reported that those among the AMNH letter calling for Mercer to step down were Michael E. Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, and Katharine Hayhoe, director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University. [13]

Green was among a group of climate change deniers who responded with their own open letter, calling for the AMNH “not to cave in to this pressure.” The letter was signed by numerous individuals with ties to groups funded by the Mercer Family Foundation such as Will Happer of the CO2 CoalitionRichard Lindzen, a fellow at the Cato Institute; and Craig Idso, the chairman of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. There are a number of signatories affiliated with the Heartland Institute, which has received over $5.78 million from the Mercer Family Foundation since 2008. [14]

The letter reads: [15]

The Earth has supported abundant life many times in the geological past when there were much higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It is quite likely that future generations will benefit from the enrichment of Earth’s atmosphere with more carbon dioxide.

Make no mistake, the agitators are not defending science from quackery — quite the contrary!”

August, 2016

Kesten Green is listed as a “Founding Member” of group named Climate Exit (Clexit) led by climate change denier Christopher Monckton. According to Clexit's founding statement (PDF), “The world must abandon this suicidal Global Warming crusade. Man does not and cannot control the climate.” [9], [10]

Desmog reports on how the group grew in the wake of the UK's decision to leave the EU. A key member of Clexit's “60 well-informed science, business and economic leaders” is Hugh Morgan, a former board member of the Reserve Bank of Australia and former CEO of Western Mining Corporation with close ties to Australia's Liberal party. [11][12]

According to Clexit's founding statement

If the Paris climate accord is ratified, or enforced locally by compliant governments, it will strangle the leading economies of the world with pointless carbon taxes and costly climate and energy policies, all with no sound basis in evidence or science […]” [9]

December, 2014

Kesten Green is a contributor to the book Climate Change: The Facts published by the Institute of Public Affairs and featuring “22 essays on the science, politics and economics of the climate change debate.” The Institute of Public Affairs, while not revealing most of its funders, is known to have received funding from mining magnate Gina Rinehart and at least one major tobacco company.[7]

The book includes essays and articles from a range of climate change skeptics, with contributors including the following:

According to Editor Alan Moran in a post at Catallaxy Files blog on Climate Change: the facts 2014, Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong “test the predictive validity of the global warming hypothesis and find it wanting. They point out that many other alarms have been raised over the past 200 years, none of which have proved to have substance. Most of the alarms that led governments into taking ac­tions actually created harm and none provided benefits.” [8]

May, 2010

Green was a speaker at Heartland Institute's fourth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC4) in Chicago, Illinois. [17] 

His speech, titled “Outcomes of the Global Warming Political Movement: Forecasts from Structure Analogies” can be viewed below. 

DeSmog has done research on the co-sponsors of the conference and found that 19 of the 65 sponsors (including Heartland itself) have received a total of over $40 million in funding since 1985 from ExxonMobilKoch Industries family foundations or the Scaife family foundations.  

March 30, 2009

Green's signature is displayed alongside a full-page ad funded by the CATO institute that appeared in numerous newspapers including the Washington Post, the New York Times and the Chicago Tribune in 2009.

The advertisement responds to President Obama's declaration that “few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent than combating climate change. The science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear” by saying that “with all due respect Mr. President, that is not true.” It claims that “there has been no net global warming for over a decade,” and that the dangers of global warming are “grossly overstated.” [6]

March 8 - 10, 2009

Green was a speaker at the Heartland Institute's second International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC2) in New York City. [4]

His speech, titled “Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decison Making” can be viewed below.

DeSmogBlog researched the funding behind the conference and found that sponsor organizations had collectively received over $47 million from energy companies and right-wing foundations, with 78% of that total coming from the Scaife Family of foundations.

March, 2008

Green was a speaker at the Heartland Institue's first International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC1.) [16] 

His speech, titled “Scientific Forecasting of Climate Change” can be viewed below. 

2008

Green, along with Scott Armstrong and Willie Soon, made public an “unpublished working paper” arguing that the current forecast data on polar bear populations is inadequate for making a decision as to whether polar bears should be listed as a threatened species under the US Endangered Species Act.

The paper, “Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit,” is not published in any peer-reviewed scientific journals, but has appeared on multiple websites, including Soon's Science and Public Policy website, Spiked Online and various blogs.

Affiliations

Publications

According to Green, he has a research H-index of 11: “based on a Google Scholar search. H-index is number of papers that have at least that many citations, i.e. 11 papers cited at least 11 times in my case.”

Upon closer examination of Green's articles on Climate change, most have appeared either in skeptical journals such as Energy and Environment (Edited by climate skeptic Sonja-Boehmer Christiansen), on his personal website, or were published by skeptical think tanks such as the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA).

His publication in the international journal of forecasting appears to be on the subject of public policy with reference to climate change.

Sample Publications:

  • Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong. “Uncertainty, the Precautionary Principle, and Climate Change” (PDF), kestengreen.com, August 9, 2009.
  • Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong. “Global Warming: Experts’ Opinions versus Scientific Forecasts” (PDF) NCPA Policy Report No. 308 (February 2008).
  • Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong. “The global warming alarm: Forecasts from the structured analogies method” (PDF) Kestencgreen.com, March 31, 2011.

Energy and Environment has been described as the place climate change skeptics go to when they are rejected by the mainstream peer-reviewed science publications. The Journal has drawn sharp criticism, including one from Michael Mann regarding a questionable study co-authored by Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas.

Resources

  1. “Kesten C. Green: Curriculum Vitae” (PDF) Kestencgreen.com. Accessed December 15, 2011.

  2. Heartland Experts: Kesten Green,” The Heartland Institute. Accessed December 15, 2011.

  3. Kesten Green. “Warnings too vivid to be true,” The Gazette, July 15, 2011.

  4. “International Conference on Climate Change” (PDF) the Heartland Institute. Archived March 7, 2010.

  5. “Personnel Details: Mr. Kesten Green,” The Heartland Institute. Archived November 5, 2008.

  6. Climate Change Reality,” The Cato Institute.

  7. Institute of Public Affairs,” SourceWatch. Accessed May 27, 2015.

  8. Alan Moran. “Climate Change: the facts 2014,” Catallaxy Files (blog), December 16, 2014.

  9. The Clexit Committee comprises” (PDF), Clexit.net. Archived.pdf on file at Desmog.

  10. After Brexit, Clexit” (PDF), Clexit.net. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog.

  11. Graham Readfearn. “After Brexit, Climate Science Denialists Form New Group to Call for a Clexit,” Desmog, August 3, 2016.

  12. Hugh Morgan AO,” Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Archived February 22, 2002. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/1ObOB

  13. Robin Pogrebin and Somini Sengupta. “A Science Denier at the Natural History Museum? Scientists Rebel,” The New York Times, January 25, 2018. Archived February 13, 2018. Archive.is URLhttps://archive.is/tAIv4

  14. Graham Readfearn. “Climate Science Deniers Defend New York’s American Museum of Natural History From Calls to Drop Trustee Rebekah Mercer,” DeSmog, February 6, 2018.

  15. mnh18-feb4-petitionletter (PDF - Untitled). Retrieved from Watts Up With That.

  16. “First International Conference on Climate Change, Program,” (PDF) Heartland Institute. Archived February 8, 2018.

  17. “First International Conference on Climate Change, Program,” (PDF) Heartland Institute. Archived January 23, 2018. 

Other Resources